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3 Homework 3 - Homepage Usask

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3 <strong>Homework</strong> 3<br />

1. We have seen in class Kaldor’s stylized facts of growth in developed countries.<br />

The Cobb-Douglas production function is used to replicate fact a.<br />

In this exercise, you are asked to show that the steady state in the Solow<br />

model with technological progress replicates facts b, c, d, ande. (I use<br />

∆x/x to denote growth rates when ˙x/x is too cumbersome.)<br />

(a) The factor distribution of income shows no trend<br />

(b) GDP per capita exhibits steady and sustained growth.<br />

You need to show that, in the SS of the Solow model with technological<br />

progress, the rate of growth of GDP per capita is a constant.<br />

In the SS of the Solow model with technological progress<br />

y ∗ (t) =A(t) · ˜y ∗ .<br />

Equating output per worker to GDP per capita, the growth rate of<br />

GDP per capita<br />

˙y/y = ˙ A/A + ∆˜y/˜y = g +0=g,<br />

since A grows at the rate g and ˜y is a constant.<br />

(c) The ratio of capital to output shows no trend<br />

You need to show that, in the SS of the Solow model with technological<br />

progress, the rate of growth of this ratio is zero. In the SS of<br />

the Solow model with technological progress<br />

Thus, their growth rates are<br />

K = ˜ kAL<br />

Y = ˜ kAL<br />

˙K/K = ∆ ˜ k/ ˜ k + ˙<br />

A/A + ˙ L/L =0+g + n = g + n<br />

˙Y/Y = ∆˜y/y + ˙ A/A + ˙ L/L =0+g + n = g + n<br />

since A grows at the rate g, L grows at the rate n, and ˜y and ˜ k are<br />

constant. And the growth rate of the ratio of capital to output<br />

∆ (K/Y )<br />

(K/Y ) = ˙ K/K − ˙ Y/Y =0<br />

(d) The real rate of return to capital shows no trend<br />

You need to show that, in the SS of the Solow model with technological<br />

progress, the rate of growth of r is zero. We know that<br />

rK = αY, or<br />

r = αY/K.<br />

9


Youjustshowinpartc. that Y/K is a constant and we know that<br />

α is a constant. Therefore<br />

˙r ˙α ∆ (K/L)<br />

= +<br />

r α (K/L) =0+0=0<br />

(e) Wages exhibit sustained growth<br />

You need to show that, in the SS of the Solow model with technological<br />

progress, the rate of growth of w is a constant. We know<br />

that<br />

wL = (1−α)Y, or<br />

w = (1−α)y. Youjustshowinpartb. that y grows at the rate g and we know<br />

that (1 − α) is constant. Therefore<br />

˙w ∆(1 − α) ˙y<br />

= + =0+g = g.<br />

w (1 − α) y<br />

2. (The answer from the textbook is enclosed. A printout for my answer is<br />

also enclosed: differences between the two answers are due to rounding<br />

errors)<br />

It is easier to start calculating the case in which A converges completely;<br />

i.e., Â =1. The third column in the Table calculates ˆs, the fifth calculates<br />

h = exp(0.1 ∗ u) andthesixthcalculatesˆ h, the 8th calculates d0 = d + g +<br />

n =0.075 + n and the 9th calculates ˆ d0. Column 10 then calculates<br />

µ 1/2<br />

ˆs<br />

ˆh<br />

ˆd0<br />

using columns 3, 6 and 9. To calculate the case in which the 1990 TFP<br />

ratios are maintained, we just need to multiply the previous answer by<br />

the 1990 TFP ratios (columns 10 and 12) to obtain column 13.<br />

The distance in this case is calculated following your method:<br />

ˆy ∗ − ˆy97<br />

ˆy ∗ .<br />

As you can see the countries are ranked by the rate of growth (or distance)<br />

in the first case 1 so Cameroon will grow the fastest and the US the slowest.<br />

In the second case, Argentina is predicted to grow at a rate below "normal"<br />

(that of the States) and the rank is as follows (from fastest to slowest):<br />

1) Cameroon, 2) Canada, 3) Thailand, 4) USA, 5) Argentina. (You were<br />

only asked which economy will be the fastest and which the slowest.)<br />

1 The answer in the textbook mixes cases a) and b)<br />

10


3 Empirical Applications of Neoclassical Growth Models<br />

Exercise 1. Where are these economies headed?<br />

From equation (3.9), we get<br />

ˆy ∗ =<br />

α <br />

ˆsK 1−α<br />

ˆh  =<br />

ˆx<br />

ˆsK<br />

<br />

(n + 0.075)<br />

α<br />

1−α<br />

e ψ(u−uU.S.) Â,<br />

where the (ˆ) is used to denote a variable relative to its U.S. value and x = n+g+d.<br />

The calculations below assume α = 1/3 and ψ = .10, as in the chapter.<br />

Applying this equation using the data provided in the exercise leads to the<br />

following results for the two cases: Case (a) maintains the 1990 TFP ratios, while<br />

case (b) has TFP levels equalized across countries. The Ratio column reports the<br />

ratio of these steady-state levels to the values in 1997.<br />

ˆy97 (a) ˆy ∗ Ratio (b) ˆy ∗ Ratio<br />

U.S.A. 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000<br />

Canada 0.864 1.030 1.193 1.001 1.159<br />

Argentina 0.453 0.581 1.283 0.300 0.663<br />

Thailand 0.233 0.554 2.378 0.259 1.112<br />

Cameroon 0.048 0.273 5.696 0.064 1.334<br />

The country furthest from its steady state will grow fastest. (Notice that by<br />

furthest we mean in percentage terms). So in case (a), the countries are ranked by<br />

their rates of growth, with Cameroon predicted to grow the fastest and the United<br />

States predicted to grow the slowest. In case (b), Cameroon is still predicted to<br />

grow the fastest while Argentina is predicted to grow the slowest.<br />

Exercise 2. Policy reforms and growth.<br />

The first thing to compute in this problem is the approximate slope of the relationship<br />

in Figure 3.8. Eyeballing it, it appears that cutting output per worker in<br />

half relative to its steady-state value raises growth over a 37-year period by about 2<br />

percentage points. (Korea is about 6 percent growth, countries at the 1/2 level are<br />

about 4 percent, and countries in their steady state are about 2 percent).<br />

10


y97 s s-hat u h h-hat n d' d'-hat y* (A-hat=1) distance A90 y* (A-hat90) distance<br />

USA 1 0.204 1.000 11.9 3.287 1.000 0.01 0.085 1.000 1.000 0.000 1 1.000 0.000<br />

Canada 0.864 0.246 1.206 11.4 3.127 0.951 0.012 0.087 1.024 1.033 0.163 0.972 1.004 0.139<br />

Argentina 0.453 0.144 0.706 8.5 2.340 0.712 0.014 0.089 1.047 0.584 0.225 0.517 0.302 -0.499<br />

Thailand 0.233 0.213 1.044 6.1 1.840 0.560 0.015 0.09 1.059 0.556 0.581 0.468 0.260 0.105<br />

Cameroon 0.048 0.102 0.500 3.4 1.405 0.427 0.028 0.103 1.212 0.275 0.825 0.234 0.064 0.253


3. Unemployment and growth. Consider how unemployment would affect<br />

the Solow growth model. Suppose that output is produced according<br />

to the production function Y = K α [(1−u ∗ )L] 1−α ,whereu ∗ is the natural<br />

rate of unemployment. There is no technological progress. Assume again<br />

that the labour force equals population.<br />

(a) Express output per worker, y, as a function of capital per worker, k,<br />

and the natural rate of unemployment. Describe the steady state of<br />

this economy.<br />

Output per worker equals<br />

y = Y<br />

L = Kα (1 − u∗ ) 1−αL1−α =(1−u<br />

L<br />

∗ ) 1−α<br />

µ α<br />

K<br />

=(1−u<br />

L<br />

∗ ) 1−α k α .<br />

A decrease in the natural rate of unemployment increases output<br />

per worker y at all levels of capital per worker k since there is more<br />

output to divide about: the production function curves shifts up.<br />

(Remember that workers are everybody in the labour force, not only<br />

the employed ones.)<br />

Since output per worker increases at all levels of k, investmentincreases<br />

at all levels of k, other things being equal (the investment<br />

curves shifts up); therefore, the capital per worker in the steady state,<br />

k ∗ , depends on the natural rate of unemployment.<br />

(Analytically, the steady state condition is the same:<br />

substituting<br />

sy = d 0 k;<br />

s(1 − u ∗ ) 1−α k α = d 0 k<br />

and solving for k<br />

k ∗ ³<br />

s<br />

=<br />

d0 You were not required to do this part.)<br />

´ 1<br />

1−α<br />

(1 − u ∗ ).<br />

(b) Suppose that some change in government policy reduces the natural<br />

rate of unemployment. Describe how this change affects output both<br />

immediately and over time. Is the steady-state effect on output larger<br />

or smaller than the immediate effect? Explain (Your answer should<br />

include a graph).<br />

The immediate effect is the increase in output per worker y at the<br />

same level of capital per capita k ∗ 1 (the old steady state capital per<br />

capita), from y∗ 1 to y0 2 =(1−u∗ 2) 1−αk∗ 1. However, this immediate<br />

effect also increases savings from s · y∗ 1 to s · y0 2 >d0 · k∗ 1 , greater than<br />

depreciation; therefore, there exists net investment which will start<br />

the process of accumulating more capital and moving to a higher<br />

steady state; i.e., the eventual effect (steady state) includes the extra<br />

increase in output due to the consequent increase in capital.<br />

11


(Analytically, suppose that the natural rate of unemployment is u ∗ 1.In<br />

the steady state,<br />

´ 1<br />

1−α<br />

k ∗ 1 =<br />

³<br />

s<br />

d0 y ∗ 1 =<br />

³<br />

s<br />

d0 The first effect would be<br />

y = (1−u ∗ 2) 1−α<br />

∙ ³<br />

s<br />

d0 (1 − u ∗ 2) 1−α ³ s<br />

d0 (1 − u ∗ 1) and<br />

´ α<br />

1−α<br />

(1 − u ∗ ).<br />

but eventually output per capita equals<br />

y ∗ 2 =<br />

´ 1<br />

1−α<br />

(1 − u ∗ ¸α<br />

1) =<br />

´ α<br />

1−α<br />

(1 − u ∗ 1) α<br />

³<br />

s<br />

d0 ´ 1<br />

1−α<br />

(1 − u ∗ 2).<br />

Again you were not required to do this.)<br />

4. The answer is enclosed.<br />

12


From the Mankiw-Romer-Weil (1992) model, we have the production function:<br />

Divide both sides by AL to get<br />

Y = K α H β (AL) 1−α−β .<br />

y<br />

A =<br />

α β k h<br />

.<br />

A A<br />

Using the (˜) to denote the ratio of a variable to A, this equation can be rewritten as<br />

˜y = ˜ k α˜ h β .<br />

Now turn to the capital accumulation equation:<br />

˙K = sKY − dK.<br />

As usual, this equation can be written to describe the evolution of ˜ k as<br />

˙˜k = sK ˜y − (n + g + d) ˜ k.<br />

Similarly, we can obtain an equation describing the evolution of ˜ h as<br />

and<br />

˙˜h = sH ˜y − (n + g + d) ˜ h.<br />

In steady state, ˙˜ k = 0 and ˙˜ h = 0. Therefore,<br />

˜k =<br />

˜h =<br />

sK<br />

n + g + d ˜y,<br />

sH<br />

n + g + d ˜y.<br />

Substituting this relationship back into the production function,<br />

˜y = ˜ k α˜<br />

<br />

β sK<br />

h =<br />

n + g + d ˜y<br />

α <br />

sH<br />

n + g + d ˜y<br />

Solving this equation for ˜y yields the steady-state level<br />

˜y ∗ α <br />

sK<br />

sH<br />

=<br />

n + g + d n + g + d<br />

β<br />

.<br />

β 1<br />

1−α−β<br />

.<br />

14


Finally, we can write the equation in terms of output per worker as<br />

y ∗ α <br />

sK<br />

sH<br />

(t) =<br />

n + g + d n + g + d<br />

Compare this expression with equation (3.8),<br />

y ∗ <br />

sK<br />

(t) =<br />

n + g + d<br />

α<br />

1−α<br />

hA(t).<br />

β 1<br />

1−α−β<br />

A(t).<br />

In the special case β = 0, the solution of the Mankiw-Weil-Romer model is<br />

different from equation (3.8) only by a constant h. Notice the symmetry in the<br />

model between human capital and physical capital. In this model, human capital<br />

is accumulated by foregoing consumption, just like physical capital. In the model<br />

in the chapter, human capital is accumulated in a different fashion — by spending<br />

time instead of output.<br />

15

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