Oscillates is the word in a 3-game series against the Philadelphia Phillies

The Cardinals have started the season in a way that invites neither excitement nor derision. At the beginning of the season, ignorant of the fact that the Marlins would begin 0-9 on the season, going 1-3 against the Dodgers and then 2-1 against both the Padres and Marlins would have been an acceptable outcome. And it still is. Throw in the fact that the Cardinals have weathered injuries to their planned starting CF, the backup plan to their CF if that went poorly, their starting LF, their unquestioned ace, and an injury that has sidelined their starting catcher for a few games. If you think the team was mediocre (or worse), 5-5 is exceeding expectations if anything.

But of course, nobody is excited to reach mediocrity no matter the circumstances. And the fact is that they’ve managed 5-5 without any of their good hitters really doing anything with the exception of Brendan Donovan and Willson Contreras. The starting pitching has been not particularly great with the exception of Steven Matz. The bullpen has been the best part of the team, though they also have already blown a save (they did win this game however).

Which brings us to the Phillies, a team I think most Cardinals fans overrate due to their playoff performances the last two years. Which is frankly an irrelevant opinion in this series, given they have the “good” fortune to face both Zach Wheeler and Aaron Nola. This is unfortunately one of those series where merely winning the series has to be seen as a huge win given the opposing starters.

If you watched any of the playoffs last year, this is essentially the same lineup. In response to Kyle Schwarber being a 0.9 fWAR player while being a well above average hitter, the Phillies seem to have moved him to DH permanently. He leads off, even against lefties, even though he has significant splits in his career (94 wRC+ against LHP). Trea Turner follows him, and he is following last year’s lead by starting slow again (57 wRC+). Bryce Harper bats behind him, playing 1B exclusively, and he has most certainly not started slow (157 wRC+)

The rest of the lineup isn’t particularly scary. JT Realmuto, coming off a 102 wRC+ season, might only be an average hitter now. Alec Bohm hasn’t managed to take that next step into more than “okay.” Byrson Stott had a 4.1 fWAR season last year on the backs of his defense, not his offense. Nick Castellanos did manage to get an above average hitting line last year, but is off to a horrid start (32 wRC+) and you know his defense is bad. It’s not clear if Brandon Marsh is actually good because he strikes out a ton and relies on a sky high BABIP. And Johan Rojas is a defense-first centerfielder who is actually hitting worse than Victor Scott II right now. Since no projected lefties are in the Cardinals’ rotation, we may not see Whit Merrifield, in Philly to face lefties, or Edmundo Sosa, who barely starts at all.

Effectively wild Jose Alvadaro has been more wild than effective to begin this year, walking 5 batters in his 4.2 IP with a 9.64 ERA. For important late-inning appearances, they may use Jeff Hoffman (33.2 K% last year), Gregory Soto (26% K rate), or Matt Strahm (30.8 K% rate). In the past, they’ve used Seranthony Dominguez is this role, but I don’t think they quite trust him after a 3.78 ERA/4.84 FIP/4.90 xFIP season. The rest of the bullpen, I assure you, is not worth writing about. This does not seem to be an especially strong bullpen.

Monday - 6:45 PM

Spencer Turnbull (4.48 ERA/3.77 FIP/4.40 xFIP) vs. Miles Mikolas (4.78 ERA/4.27 FIP/4.76 xFIP)

I think I’ll give it five starts before I start using 2024 stats. Turnbull’s numbers are his career numbers. I couldn’t exactly use 2023, as he only made 7 starts and he’s been fighting injuries for the past few seasons. That said, he had something of an unbelievable start to begin his Phillies career: 5 scoreless innings with 7 strikeouts, no walks, and a bunch of groundballs. His xFIP right now is 0.98. There hasn’t even been an inkling that he’s that kind of pitcher and he’s 31, so that was probably just a great start, but for the “easiest” start of this series, don’t love that he dominated the Reds in his first.

I know people were concerned about the lack of whiffs that Mikolas had in his last start, but he’s never really been a pitcher who gets whiffs and the end result was a good start. He had a 2.37 FIP and 3.57 xFIP. Do that against the Phillies and the Cardinals have a good chance to win that game. And the Phillies lineup isn’t really as good as you’d think.

Tuesday - 6:45 PM

Zack Wheeler (3.61 ERA/3.15 FIP/3.54 xFIP) vs. Sonny Gray (2.79 ERA/2.83 FIP/3.64 xFIP)

As it turns out, Gray is using this game as a psuedo-rehab start. He will treat it like an actual start, but in case you’re confused, he will be taken out around 65 pitches. Gray preferred to do it this way instead of having a rehab start and be more stretched out his next outing. Whether this works to the Cardinals advantage remains to be seen.

As for Wheeler, I’d love to be able to tell you the Cardinals actually have hit him, but it’s actually the opposite. Wheeler has dominated the Cards for three straight seasons. He has allowed two combined earned runs in 29 innings in his last four starts combined. He has struck out 29 batters to just 5 walks. He has thrown at least 7 innings in all four starts. The best sort of hope I can provide is.... Cards are due?

Wednesday - 12:15 PM

Aaron Nola (4.46 ERA/4.03 FIP/3.63 xFIP) vs. Lance Lynn (5.73 ERA/5.53 FIP/4.50 xFIP)

Nola, on the other hand, has some precedence for getting hit by the St. Louis Cardinals. He oscillates between a great start and a bad start it seems. Last year, he threw seven scoreless and also didn’t last 5 innings (though only gave up 3 runs). In 2022, he allowed 5 runs in a start. Nola also has gotten off to a bad start this season. Nola turned it on in the playoffs, but was far from dominant in the regular season. This is a more winnable game than you’d think.

Lynn, well, the story on Lynn is the same as the story on Lynn was when the Cardinals signed him. If he can just avoid the home run ball, he is probably having a good start. He is, or at least was, among the league leaders in whiffs and actually has a 3.12 xFIP. But nobody wants to hear that if the home runs are falling, so let’s hope they stay in the park today.

Somehow, the Cardinals are both perfectly capable of winning a 3-game series - this isn’t like winning a 4-game series against the Dodgers - while also sort of feeling like one of those series where if the Cards actually do manage to win 2 out of 3, it’ll feel pretty big honestly.