Matthew Klein’s Post

I have long talked about the effects of under reporting inflation on reported growth figures well.....below is retail sales as reported for US economy adjusted for inflation (even though these figures in my view are lower vs real inflation)......as you can see in real terms ex inflation retail sales arent growing.....and thats confirmed by corp america when listening to conference calls & seeing REAL data vs govt data......WHY does it matter? Well it all filters into the direction of interest rates and ultimately equity values.

This week's economic data revealed hotter-than-expected CPI and PPI figures, alongside weaker-than-expected retail sales. These indicators suggest that the US may be quietly transitioning into the inflationary bust (i.e. Stagflation) phase of the business cycle.

This week, interest rates experienced an upward trend due to concerns about rising inflation. The Consumer Price Index exceeded expectations by 0.10%, while the Producer Price Index surpassed predictions by 0.20%. However, there is a silver lining: Retail Sales fell short of expectations by -0.60%, indicating that consumers may be curbing their spending. This adjustment could potentially contribute to mitigating inflation pressures. 📈

A soggy start to Autumn! Hitting numbers and holding forecasts has provided little protection, with the majority of retail share prices down this month. Macro concerns ahead of the critical peak trading period are outweighing the positive momentum underpinning margin and cost recovery within forecasts.  With real income on the up as pay increases outweigh moderating inflation, the data suggests the worst is over. However, consumers have differing priorities as interest rate pressures continue to work through the system. Cost and margin tailwinds have yet to fully flow through, with freight, commodity prices and lower factory gate pricing mitigating the effect of a slower sales recovery. Continue reading here: https://lnkd.in/eV29y9iY Ruben Pathmanathan John Stevenson #retail #forecast #research #autumn #inflation  

Major equity markets ended the week negative. Retail sales data came in ahead of expectations, highlighting continued consumer resilience. Federal Reserve meeting minutes were also released during the week, reflecting ongoing concern from Fed officials about the pace of inflation, indicating there may be additional rate hikes on the horizon. Next week will include the latest reading on consumer sentiment as well as an update on the manufacturing sector.

Major equity markets ended the week negative. Retail sales data came in ahead of expectations, highlighting continued consumer resilience. Federal Reserve meeting minutes were also released during the week, reflecting ongoing concern from Fed officials about the pace of inflation, indicating there may be additional rate hikes on the horizon. Next week will include the latest reading on consumer sentiment as well as an update on the manufacturing sector.