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Neil Monnery
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Safe as Houses?: A Historical Analysis of Property Prices Paperback – September 1, 2011

by Neil Monnery (Author)
3.7 3.7 out of 5 stars 13 ratings
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There can be few everyday financial issues more important than the price of houses. Whether we own one and worry about its value or aspire to own one and are frustrated by their high prices, nobody can avoid the issue. In the UK, while prices have fluctuated during our lifetimes, overall they have risen steadily and sometimes spectacularly. The accepted wisdom is that houses are a safe and excellent investment for the long term. But are they really as good an investment as we believe? Might the future be different from the past? Are houses really so safe? This book looks at house prices over the long term in several countries -- including the UK, the US, France, Holland, Norway, Germany and Australia -- to find out what has happened to house prices and why. The author illustrates his findings with authoritative data on trends and provides intriguing details including a century-long index of UK house prices, an analysis of the value of the White House and a fascinating four-hundred-year story of houses in Amsterdam. - To what extent are we right to view our houses as an investment as well as a home?- If prices can rise for decades and then fall for more than a whole generation, then what does the future hold? - If prices rise further, will houses become unaffordable for many young people? How will that affect our society? - If they crash, will that endanger our banks once more? - Are politicians, policymakers and regulators prepared for the true range of possibilities? Anybody who owns a house, wants to own a house or follows the prices and economics of housing will find this book an accessible, fascinating and door-opening read. Neil Monnery studied at Oxford and Harvard Business School. He worked for many years at The Boston Consulting Group as a Director and Senior Vice President and is now active in business, investing and research.
Previous page
  1. Print length
    220 pages
  2. Language
    English
  3. Publisher
    London Publishing Partnership
  4. Publication date
    September 1, 2011
  5. Grade level
    7 - 9
  6. Dimensions
    6.19 x 0.67 x 9.17 inches
  7. ISBN-10
    1907994017
  8. ISBN-13
    978-1907994012
  9. See all details
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Product details

  • Publisher ‏ : ‎ London Publishing Partnership (September 1, 2011)
  • Language ‏ : ‎ English
  • Paperback ‏ : ‎ 220 pages
  • ISBN-10 ‏ : ‎ 1907994017
  • ISBN-13 ‏ : ‎ 978-1907994012
  • Grade level ‏ : ‎ 7 - 9
  • Item Weight ‏ : ‎ 11.8 ounces
  • Dimensions ‏ : ‎ 6.19 x 0.67 x 9.17 inches
  • Customer Reviews:
    3.7 3.7 out of 5 stars 13 ratings

About the author

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Neil Monnery

Neil Monnery

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Neil Monnery studied at Exeter College, Oxford and at Harvard Business School. He worked for twenty years at The Boston Consulting Group as a Director and Senior Vice President and for ten years at WH Smith as Group Strategy Director and Chairman of Smiths News.

Neil has two main research areas which draw on this background in economics and business. He is interested in how economic history can inform issues that we face today, such as our need for higher economic growth. And at the level of the individual business his main interest is describing how companies manage to deliver sustained value creation.

Customer reviews

3.7 out of 5 stars
3.7 out of 5
13 global ratings

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Jonathan A. K. Cummins
5.0 out of 5 stars Interesting read
Reviewed in the United Kingdom on August 13, 2012
Verified Purchase
This book is a very interesting and fairly comprehensive study of real house price trends across time in a number of markets across the world. It's fascinating looking at how prices have trended in parts of Amsterdam since 1690, compared with the normal housing data you see that rarely extends back more than 20 years, a relatively short sample period for a market like property.

The book is good as it doesn't seek to push a particular view, or try and make any hero call on the market, it simply presents the data in an interesting way. Recommended reading for anyone looking to buy or already in the market.
4 people found this helpful
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DA
4.0 out of 5 stars Over all very good book, think you will not find any other ...
Reviewed in the United Kingdom on December 28, 2015
Verified Purchase
Very informative, well researched. I'm not sure if the writer is including the monthly rental income in his house price index, he is mainly calculating the inflation changes over the time. Also gearing up element of a house investment is not been considered? Over all very good book, think you will not find any other books in this subject.
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Panta Rhei
3.0 out of 5 stars More to add
Reviewed in the United Kingdom on May 3, 2012
Verified Purchase
Neil Monnery has tried, and I believe successfully, to write a readable and relatively informative book on a highly complex subject. I feel, however, that there is a great deal more that could have been included.

I would like to say how much I enjoyed this book. It is easily read and flows well, there are interesting bits to it but there are also areas that were missed out which are important to properly make a realistic discussion of the property markets. I found that the book raised more questions that it solved such as:

Property prices are notoriously inaccurate - where do you source your data? Estate agent asking prices or land registry prices? What makes up the index as each property is unique and each region has its own supply and demand factors? An exploration of this would have been an important factor and should have been a chapter on its own. Page 152 uses a house in Dover from 1900-1999, the house would have had no running water, plumbing, inside toilet, central heating, double glazing etc in 1900. The capital cost of making these additions would have changed the real and nominal price appreciation of this property over the period.

As a subset, it is vital to mention population mobility (rural to urban, industrial to services, clustering and agglomeration -such as City deregulation and the resulting increase in demand in London for bankers, lawyers accountants, IT, employment of well-paid overseas professionals.

How do you determine "value"? Is it £ per sq foot, number of bedrooms, loan to income, LTV, rent versus interest expense should interest expense include some capital value repayment on the debt and if so over what time period?) etc
Other important chapters would have included a deeper discussion on rent and its importance in calculating capital values and rent and its relationship with transport/ travel costs. Rent as a yield and as a theoretical yield against a risk free rate (Capital Markets Model) and other assets.

Tax and Legal. My understanding is that a mortgage is on a property in the US whilst in the UK it is on an individual and therefore it is much harder for an individual in the UK to walk away from mortgage debt. Mortgage interest rates are an income tax deductible in the US. Any individual can set up an offshore vehicle and put their property in it and thus quite legally avoid the purchaser from paying stamp duty. For a UK resident, there is no more tax efficient investment than owning a property. A mention of the movement of hot money or international capital flows around the world is an important input into the demand side equation ( Russian, Greek, Italian on the residential side and the German investment funds on the commercial property side.

There is no mention of the relationship between commercial property and residential property. This deserves a chapter in its own right.

A deeper discussion on psychology should have been mentioned. The fact that prices have risen for an extended period enforces the view that property prices never decline for an extended period. If 25-35 year olds believe that property prices will decline for an extended period, they will not purchase - and they will be happy with their decision, whilst those who have high LTV's will no longer view themselves as fortunate enough to own a house.

A more in depth discussion on financial deregulation for mortgage lending and its effect on banking capital adequacy ratios, slicing and dicing (asset securitisation) of residential and commercial lending and the access the banks had to wholesale lending markets enabling an enormous increase in lending to the real estate sector would have been beneficial.

I liked the scenarios on page 171, I would have devoted more time to this and done a deeper supply demand analysis.
I also liked Table 9.2 Drivers of real house prices, I would have used this as the basis of the book and given less geographical examples of changes in house prices (and given more regional examples of changes in supply and demand in the UK, as it is dangerous and difficult to compare and contrast different international real estate markets - Grafton Street in Dublin being a prime example of using specific data to come to any informed opinion). I would have dramatically expanded this particular section as there are a number of gaps that need filling.

My third to last chapter would have been to explain why property markets are beneficial to the economy; my penultimate chapter would have been a robust discussion on why an obsession with property prices is bad for an economy (store of value in an unproductive asset).

My final chapter would be how do we change the sector so that it remains healthy, affordable, promotes mobility and is in the best interests for the economy and those who live in it so that that we never have such a balance sheet disaster again.
8 people found this helpful
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Batman
2.0 out of 5 stars Havent got far
Reviewed in the United Kingdom on October 25, 2011
Verified Purchase
Book is not captivating enough. Basically discusses history and I have not picked it up after the 2nd chapter. Perhaps it would become interesting later on a bit but for me a book has to interest from page 1.
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Jonathan Litscher
5.0 out of 5 stars Fascinating book, deeply insightful, pleasantly written and entertaining ...
Reviewed in the United Kingdom on May 11, 2015
Verified Purchase
Fascinating book, deeply insightful, pleasantly written and entertaining. A refreshing and important antithesis to common popular wisdom about the housing market.
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