Chapter 4 Bond Price Volatility Chapter Pages 58-85,89-91.

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1 Chapter 4 Bond Price Volatility Chapter Pages 58-85,89-91

2 Introduction  Bond volatility is a result of interest rate volatility:  When interest rates go up bond prices go down and vice versa.  Goals of the chapter:  To understand a bond’s price volatility characteristics.  Quantify price volatility.

3 Review of Price-Yield Relationships  Consider two 9% coupon semiannual pay bonds:  Bond A: 5 years to maturity.  Bond B: 25 years to maturity. Yield5 Years25 Years 6 1,127.95 1,385.95 7 1,083.17 1,234.56 8 1,040.55 1,107.41 9 1,000.00 10 961.39 908.72 11 924.62 830.68 12 889.60 763.57  The long-term bond price is more sensitive to interest rate changes than the short-term bond price.

4 Review of Price-Yield Relationships  Consider three 25 year semiannual pay bonds:  9%, 6%, and 0% coupon bonds  Notice what happens as yields increase from 6% to 12%: Yield9%6%0%9%6%0% 6% 1,127.95 1,000.00 228.110% 7% 1,083.17 882.72 179.05-4%-12%-22% 8% 1,040.55 785.18 140.71-8%-21%-38% 9% 1,000.00 703.57 110.71-11%-30%-51% 10% 961.39 634.88 87.20-15%-37%-62% 11% 924.62 576.71 68.77-18%-42%-70% 12% 889.60 527.14 54.29-21%-47%-76%

5 Bond Characteristics That Influence Price Volatility  Coupon Rate: For a given maturity and yield, bonds with lower coupon rates exhibit greater price volatility when interest rates change. Why?  Maturity: For a given coupon rate and yield, bonds with longer maturity exhibit greater price volatility when interest rates change. Why?  Note: The higher the yield on the bond, the lower its volatility.

6 Shape of the Price-Yield Curve  If we were to graph price-yield changes for bonds we would get something like this: Yield Price  What do you notice about this graph?  It isn’t linear…it is convex.  It looks like there is more “upside” than “downside” for a given change in yield.

7 Quick Review: Why Do Yields Change?  The required return on any security equals:  r = r real + Expected Inflation + RP  Yields can change for three reasons:  Change in the real rate—compensation for deferring consumption.  Change in expected inflation—i.e., erosion of purchasing power (important).  Change in risk—e.g., credit risk, liquidity risk, etc.

8 Price Volatility Properties of Bonds  Exhibit 4-3 from Fabozzi text, p. 61 (required yield is 9%):

9 Price Volatility Properties of Bonds  Properties of option-free bonds:  All bond prices move opposite direction of yields, but the percentage price change is different for each bond, depending on maturity and coupon  For very small changes in yield, the percentage price change for a given bond is roughly the same whether yields increase or decrease.  For large changes in yield, the percentage price increase is greater than a price decrease, for a given yield change.

10 Measures of Bond Price Volatility  Three measures are commonly used in practice: 1.Price value of a basis point (also called dollar value of an 01) 2.Yield value of a price change 3.Duration

11 Price Value of a Basis Point  Change in the dollar price of the bond if the required yield changes by 1 bp.  Recall that small changes in yield produce a similar price change regardless of whether yields increase or decrease.  Therefore, the Price Value of a Basis Point is the same for yield increases and decreases.

12 Price Value of a Basis Point - pg 63  We examine the price of six bonds assuming yields are 9%. We then assume 1 bp increase in yields (to 9.01%) Bond Initial Price (at 9% yield) New Price (at 9.01%) Price Value of a BP 5-year, 9% coupon100.000099.96040.0396 25-year, 9% coupon100.000099.90130.0987 5-year, 6% coupon88.130988.09450.0364 25-year, 6% coupon70.357070.28240.0746 5-year, 0% coupon64.392864.3620.0308 25-year, 0% coupon11.071011.04450.0265

13 Yield Value of a Price Change  Procedure:  Calculate YTM.  Reduce the bond price by X dollars.  Calculate the new YTM.  The difference between the YTM new and YTM initial is the yield value of an X dollar price change.

14 Duration  The concept of duration is based on the slope of the price-yield relationship: Yield Price  What does slope of a curve tell us? How much the y-axis changes for a small change in the x-axis. Slope = dP/dy Duration—tells us how much bond price changes for a given change in yield. Note: there are different types of duration.

15 Two Types of Duration  Modified duration:  Tells us how much a bond’s price changes (in percent) for a given change in yield.  Dollar duration:  Tells us how much a bond’s price changes (in dollars) for a given change in yield.  We will start with modified duration.

16 Deriving Duration  The price of an option-free bond is:  P = bond’s price  C = semiannual coupon payment  M = maturity value (Note: we will assume M = $100)  n = number of semiannual payments (#years  2).  y = one-half the required yield  How do we get dP/dy?

17 Duration, con’t  This tells us the approximate dollar price change of the bond for a small change in yield.  To determine the percentage price change in a bond for a given change in yield (called modified duration) we need:  The first derivative of bond price (P) with respect to yield (y) is: Macaulay Duration

18 Duration, con’t  Therefore we get:  Modified duration gives us a bond’s approximate percentage price change for a small change in yield.  The negative sign reflects the inverse relation between bond price and yield.  Duration is measured over the time horizon of the m periodic CFs that occur during a year (typically m = 2). To get an annual duration:

19 Calculating Duration  Recall that the price of a bond can be expressed as:  Taking the first derivative of P with respect to y and multiplying by 1/P we get:

20 Example  Consider a 25-year 6% coupon bond selling at 70.357 (par value is $100) and priced to yield 9%.  To get modified duration in years we divide by 2: (in number of semiannual periods) (what is Macaulay duration?)

21 Properties of Duration Bond Macaulay Duration Modified Duration 9% 5-year4.133.96 9%25-year10.339.88 6% 5-year4.354.16 6%25-year11.1010.62 0% 5-year5.004.78 0%25-year25.0023.98  Earlier we showed that holding all else constant:  The longer the maturity the greater the bond’s price volatility.  The lower the coupon the greater the bond’s price volatility.  So, the greater a bond’s duration, the greater its volatility:  So duration is a measure of a bond’s volatility.  Duration and Maturity: Duration increases with maturity. Coupon bonds: duration < maturity. Zeros: Macaulay duration = maturity Modified duration < maturity.  Duration and Coupon: The lower the coupon the greater the duration (exception is long-maturity deep-discount bonds)

22 Properties of Duration, con’t  What is the relationship between duration and yield? Yield (%) Modified Duration 711.21 810.53 99.88 109.27 118.7 128.16 137.66 147.21  The higher the yield the lower the duration.  Therefore, the higher the yield the lower the bond’s price volatility.

23 Duration In Action!  Recall:  Solve for dP/P (the % price change): Formula 4.11  We can use this to approximate the % price change in a bond for a given change in yield.  Example: Consider the 25-year 6% bond priced at 70.3570 to yield 9%. Modified duration = 10.62.  By how much will the bond price change (in percentage terms) if yields increase from 9% to 9.10%?

24 Solution  Using our formula:  Here, y is changing from 0.09 to 0.091 so dy = +0.001:  Thus, a 10 bp increase in yield will result (approximately) in a 1.06% decline in bond price.  Note this effect is symmetric:  A 10 bp decline in yield (from 9% to 8.90%) result in a 1.06% price increase.

25 One More Example  Assume the yield increases by 300 bps. (or –31.86%)  Likewise, a 300 bps decline in yield will change the bond’s price by +31.86%  Are these approximations accurate?

26 Accuracy of Duration (Exhibit 4-3) Change (bp) Duration %∆ Actual %∆ Abs Dif +10-1.06-1.050.01 -10+1.06+1.070.01 +300-31.86-25.086.78 -300+31.8642.1310.27  Problems with duration:  It assumes symmetric changes in bond price (not true in reality).  The greater the yield change the larger the approximation error.  Duration works well for small yield changes but is problematic for large yield changes.

27 Approximating Dollar Changes  How do we measure dollar price changes for a given change in yield?  Recall:  Solve for dP/dy: (This is called Dollar Duration)  Solve for dP:

28 Consider Previous Example  A 6% 25-year bond priced to yield 9% at 70.3570.  Dollar duration = 747.2009 (= 10.62 x 70.3570)  What happens to bond price if yield increases by 1 bp?  A 1 bp increase in yield reduces the bond’s price by $0.0747 dollars (per $100 of face value)  If an investor had $1,000,000 in face value of the bond, a 1 bp increase in yield would reduce the value of the holdings by $747.  This is a symmetric measurement.

29 Example, con’t  Suppose yields increased by 300 bps:  A 300 bp increase in yield reduces the bond’s price by $22.42 dollars (per $100 in par value)  A $1,000,000 face value in bond holding would decline in value by $224,161 if the yield were to increase by 300 bps.  Again, this is symmetric.  How accurate is this approximation?  As with modified duration, the approximation is good for small yield changes, but not good for large yield changes.

30 Accuracy of Duration  Why is duration more accurate for small changes in yield than for large changes?  Because duration is a linear approximation of a curvilinear (or convex) relation: Yield Price y0y0 P0P0 P1P1 y1y1 y2y2 Error  Error is large for large  y.  Duration treats the price/yield relationship as a linear.  Error is small for small  y.  The error occurs because of convexity. P 2, Actual P 2, Estimated y3y3 P 3, Actual P 3, Estimated Error  The error is larger for yield decreases.

31 Portfolio Duration  The duration of a portfolio of bonds is the weighted average of the durations of the bonds in the portfolio.  Example: BondMarket ValueWeightDuration A$10 million0.104 B$40 million0.407 C$30 million0.306 D$20 million0.202  Portfolio duration is:  If all yields affecting all bonds change by 100 bps, the value of the portfolio will change by about 5.4%.

32 Convexity  Duration is a good approximation of the price yield- relationship for small changes in y.  For large changes in y duration is a poor approximation.  Why? Because the tangent line to the curve can’t capture the appropriate price change when ∆y is large.  Also keep in mind that there is a different duration for every different yield for a bond.  This means each time we get a new yield, we need to calculate a new duration.

33 Measuring Convexity  The first derivative measures slope (duration).  The second derivative measures the change in slope (convexity).  As with duration, there are two convexity measures:  Dollar convexity measure – Dollar price change of a bond due to convexity.  Convexity measure – Percentage price change of a bond due to convexity.  The dollar convexity measure of a bond is:  The convexity measure of a bond:

34 Measuring Convexity  Now we can measure the dollar price change of a bond due to convexity:  The percentage price change of a bond due to convexity:

35 Calculating Convexity  How do we actually get a convexity number?  Start with the simple bond price equation:  Take the second derivative of P with respect to y:  Or using the PV of an annuity equation, we get:

36 Convexity Example  Consider a 25-year 6% coupon bond priced at 70.357 (per $100 of par value) to yield 9%. Find convexity. Note: Convexity is measured in time units of the coupons.  To get convexity in years, divide by m 2 (typically m = 2)

37 Price Changes Using Both Duration and Convexity  % price change due to duration:  = -(modified duration)(dy)  % price change due to convexity:  = ½(convexity measure)(dy) 2  Therefore, the percentage price change due to both duration and convexity is:

38 Example  A 25-year 6% bond is priced to yield 9%.  Modified duration = 10.62  Convexity measure = 182.92  Suppose the required yield increases by 200 bps (from 9% to 11%). What happens to the price of the bond?

39 Important Question: How Accurate is Our Measure?  If yields increase by 200 bps, how much will the bond’s price actually change? Measure of Percentage Price Change Percentage Price Change Duration-21.24 Duration & Convexity-17.58 Actual-18.03  Note: Duration & convexity provides a better approximation than duration alone.  But duration & convexity together is still just an approximation.

40 Some Notes On Convexity  Convexity refers to the curvature of the price-yield relationship.  The convexity measure is the quantification of this curvature  Duration is easy to interpret: it is the approximate % change in bond price due to a change in yield.  But how do we interpret convexity?  It’s not straightforward like duration, since convexity is based on the square of yield changes.

41 The Value of Convexity  Suppose we have two bonds with the same duration and the same required yield: Yield Price Bond A Bond B  Notice bond B is more curved (i.e., convex) than bond A.  If yields rise, bond B will fall less than bond A.  If yields fall, bond B will rise more than bond A.  That is, if yields change from y 0, bond B will always be worth more than bond A!  Convexity has value!  Investors will pay for convexity (accept a lower yield) if large interest rate changes are expected. y0y0

42 Properties of Convexity  All option-free bonds have the following properties with regard to convexity.  Property 1:  As bond yield increases, bond convexity decreases (and vice versa). This is called positive convexity.  Property 2:  For a given yield and maturity, the lower the coupon the greater a bond’s convexity.  Property 3:  For a given yield and modified duration, the lower the coupon the smaller the convexity (I disagree with this property – possible error)

43 Additional Concerns with Duration  We know duration ignores convexity and may not be appropriate when measuring price volatility. However, there are other concerns to address.  Notice that duration is based on the simple bond pricing formula:  This formula assumes that yields for all maturities are the same (i.e., flat yield curve) and that all yield curve shifts are parallel. This is not true in general! Recall we can view a bond as a package of zeros, each with it’s own yield. We also know that the yield curve usually does not shift in a parallel fashion.  Our discussion of duration applies only to option-free bonds.

44 Duration as an Alternative Measure of “Maturity”  It is popular to interpret duration as the “weighted average” life of a bond.  This is true only with very simple bonds and is not true in general…be careful.  For example, there are 20 year bonds with durations greater than 20 years!  Obviously the interpretation as weighted average life does not hold.

45 Approximation Methods  We can the approximate duration and convexity for any bond or more complex instrument using the following:  Where:  P – = price of bond after decreasing yield by a small number of bps.  P + = price of bond after increasing yield by same small number of bps.  P 0 = initial price of bond.  ∆y = change in yield.

46 Example of Approximation  Consider a 25-year 6% coupon bond priced at 70.357 to yield 9%.  Increase yield by 10 bps (from 9% to 9.1%): P + = 69.6164  Decrease yield by 10 bps (from 9% to 8.9%): P - = 71.1105.  How accurate are these approximations? Actual duration = 10.62 Actual convexity = 182.92  These equations do a fine job approximating duration & convexity.

47 Additional Series Of Slides:  Additional Slides on Duration & Convexity Used by Dr. Shaffer in MBA derivatives class Additional explanations & clarifications B is used for P for notation

48 What is Duration?  Measures how long, on average, it takes to receive the cash flows from a bond:  Is a weighted average of the “maturities” of a bond’s cash flows.  Recall, a bond is a package of zero-coupon bonds:  Duration is the weighted average maturity of all of those zero- coupon bonds. Maturity of the i th cash flow (i th zero-coupon bond) Weight given to the i th cash flow (i th zero coupon bond)

49 Duration  What is the weight, w i, given to each cash flow?  The percentage contribution that each cash flow makes to the value of the bond.  The greater the impact a cash flow has on a bond’s value, the greater the weight assigned to that cash flow:  Example:  Consider two 5-year bonds, identical in every respect except the order in which the cash flows are received.  (for familiarity, we use discrete compounding).

50 Duration  The bond cash flows look like:  But, which bond has less interest rate risk?  Why? Both have the same maturity

51 Duration Example  Consider the following bond:  Maturity = 5-years  Coupon = 10% (coupons paid annually).  Face Value = $1,000.  Yield = 12% (and term structure is flat).  What is the bond’s price?  What is the bond’s duration?

52 Duration Example  The bond price is: Now we only need the w i  Duration is:

53 Duration Example  Recall, the bond’s discounted cash flows:  Therefore:

54 Duration Comments  We just found the bond’s Macaulay duration.  Note that duration, D, is based on the first derivative of bond price, B, with respect to y:  Recall that a derivative the slope of a line tangent to a curve.

55 Duration  Relationship between bond prices and yields: Bond price Yield The shape of this curve is convex. Duration is based on the slope of this curve. There is a different duration for every bond price (point on the curve).

56 Duration  Recall duration:  We can express this as:  Now we can see how a bond’s price changes when yields change: Dollar change in bond’s pricePercentage change in bond’s price

57 Duration Example  Consider the example earlier. The bond was priced at $902.69 and its duration was 4.12. The term structure was flat at 12%.  How is the bond’s price related to changes in interest rates?

58 Duration Example  Recall:  Suppose interest rates increase by 100bp (i.e., 1% from 12% to 13%).  Then the bond’s price will drop by:  The new bond price will be:  $865.50 (= $902.69 - $37.19)

59 Duration Relationships  Duration increases as:  (1) Maturity increases:  There are more cash flows in the “out years” thus a higher duration.  (2) Coupons decrease:  Means distant cash flows to contribute more to the bond’s value.  (3) YTM decreases:  The distant cash flows get discounted less and contribute more to the bond’s value.

60 Portfolio Duration  Is the weighted average of the durations of the bonds in the portfolio.  For a portfolio of N bonds, the duration is: w i = Bond’s value in proportion to the value of the portfolio

61 Limitations of Duration  The application of duration is limited. Why?  It makes two critical assumptions:  (1) The yield curve makes parallel shifts.  (2) The shifts in the yield curve are small.

62 Changes in Yield are Small  When changes in yield are small, bond price changes can be approximated by duration.  However, if moderate or large shifts are experienced, duration is not accurate:  A second factor, convexity, must be considered.  Recall, duration is based on first derivative of price with respect to yield:  Convexity is the based on second derivative.

63 Convexity: Small  y Bond Price Yield Duration (slope)  y  y y0y0 In both cases: Duration approximates bond’s price change. BD  BBD  B Now suppose yields increase or decrease. BD  BBD  B

64 Convexity: Large  y Bond Price Yield Duration (slope) Error is large for large  y. y0y0 B BDBD  y  y BDBD Duration treats price/yield relationship as a linear. Error is small for small  y. B (B – B D ) is the error due to convexity.

65 More on Convexity Bond Price Yield Bond A Bond B  Bonds A and B have same duration.  Bond A is more convex than Bond B:  When y increases Bond A will decline less than Bond B.  When y decreases Bond A will increase more than Bond B.  Thus: Bond A performs better than Bond B.  Convexity is valuable.  High convexity bonds cost more than low convexity bonds. y0y0

66 Duration & Convexity  If we include convexity, we can more accurately relate the change in a bond’s price to changes in yield: DurationConvexity Percentage change in bond price DurationConvexity Dollar change in bond price

67 Convexity Example  A 5-year 10% coupon bond is priced at $1,081.10 and has a duration of 3.94 and convexity of 19.37.  By what percentage will this bond’s price change if interest rates increase or decrease by 1% (i.e. 100 bp)?

68 Convexity Example  If interest rates rise by 1%:  If interest rates fall by 1%:

69 Convexity Properties  Convexity is:  Greatest when bond cash flows are evenly distributed over life of bond.  Lowest when bond cash flows are concentrated around a point in time.  The convexity of a portfolio of bonds is a weighted average of the convexities of the individual bonds in the portfolio: